Report file already exists - will be overwritten Consistency checking... Network OK Give training set file name: Give prediction set file name: ---------------------------------------------------- Neural Network type : Dynamical Recurrent Neural Network Version : August 04 2000 Author : Alex Aussem (Univ. Blaise Pascal France) ---------------------------------------------------- This code was developped for the ESO Project'2000: PREDICTION OF SEEING FLUCTUATIONS ---------------------------------------------------- ERROR = MEAN SQUARED ERROR AVERAGED OVER ALL VALID PATTERNS IN TRAINING SET DRNN config is saved at the minimum on TRAINING SET !! TEST SET only for validation purposes.. ---------------------------------------------------- Training algorithm : Temporal Recurrent BackProp (TRBP) Unfolding stretch : 71 time slices Teaching type : TEACHER-FORCING ---------------------------------------------------- Number of INPUT units : 4 Number of HIDDEN units : 6 Number of OUTPUT units : 1 ---------------------------------------------------- Number of links : 649 Number of error links : 18 Maximum link delay : 70 ---------------------------------------------------- Learning Rate increase : 1.0e-04 Learning Rate deccrease : 9.0e-01 ---------------------------------------------------- Proportional weight decay : 1.0e-05 ---------------------------------------------------- Number of epochs processed : 100 ---------------------------------------------------- Number of patterns in database : 3000 Number of valid patt. in database : 2930 Number of patterns in prediction set : 101 Number of valid patt. in pred. set : 101 ---------------------------------------------------- All inputs are individually normalized before entering NN Input 1 - Mean = 1.397e+01 - StdDev = 1.388e+00 Input 2 - Mean = 4.273e-01 - StdDev = 4.270e-01 Input 3 - Mean = 5.420e+00 - StdDev = 3.337e+00 Input 4 - Mean = 7.884e-01 - StdDev = 2.948e-01 ---------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- INITIAL MSE on training set = 0.029484 INITIAL MSE on test set = 0.118529 ---------------------------------------------------- Starting training process... CURRENT MSE on training set = 0.029234 at epoch 19 CURRENT MSE on test set = 0.117609 at epoch 19 CURRENT MSE on training set = 0.029032 at epoch 30 CURRENT MSE on test set = 0.117847 at epoch 30 CURRENT MSE on training set = 0.028798 at epoch 40 CURRENT MSE on test set = 0.120588 at epoch 40 CURRENT MSE on training set = 0.028614 at epoch 58 CURRENT MSE on test set = 0.121876 at epoch 58 Epoch 100 Training completed ---------------------------------------------------- FINAL MSE on training set = 0.028614 FINAL MSE on test set = 0.121876 ---------------------------------------------------- CARBON COPY delay is 60 CarbC MSE on training set = 0.158604 CarbC MSE on test set = 0.170725 ---------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- CONTINGENCIES ---------------------------------------------------------- Prediction \ Target | LaregInc LaregDec | Sum ---------------------------------------------------------- LaregInc | 37.05 11.32 | 48.37 LaregDec | 10.74 40.89 | 51.63 -------------------------------------------------- Sum | 47.79 52.21 -------------------------------------------------- Hit rate = trace Loss rate = a12+a21 Hit rate = 77.943 Loss rate = 22.057 -------------------------------------------------- Cost = (a12+a21) Cost = 0.220574 -------------------------------------------------- ANTICIPATION RATES: (DeltaTarget !=0 && Pred=Target) = 52.17 (DeltaPred !=0 && Pred=Target) = 55.80 -------------------------------------------------- Entropy Prediction = 0.692617 Entropy Target = 0.692171 -------------------------------------------------- Joint Entropy = 1.219759 -------------------------------------------------- Cross E. = E. Prediction + E. Target - Joint E -------------------------------------------------- Cross Entropy = 0.165028 -------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- CARBON COPY CONTINGENCIES CARBON COPY delay is 60 ---------------------------------------------------------- Prediction \ Target | LaregInc LaregDec | Sum ---------------------------------------------------------- LaregInc | 26.22 25.99 | 52.21 LaregDec | 25.99 21.80 | 47.79 -------------------------------------------------- Sum | 52.21 47.79 -------------------------------------------------- Hit rate = trace Loss rate = a12+a21 Hit rate = 48.017 Loss rate = 51.983 -------------------------------------------------- Cost = (a12+a21) Cost = 0.519832 -------------------------------------------------- Entropy Carbon C. = 0.692171 Entropy Target = 0.692171 -------------------------------------------------- Joint Entropy = 1.383472 -------------------------------------------------- Cross E. = E. Prediction + E. Target - Joint E -------------------------------------------------- Cross Entropy = 0.000870 -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- Delta Cross Entropy = 0.164159 -------------------------------------------------- Network saved at epoch 58 as NetConfig*.bak Good bye 0012241419